Things are Probably Not as Bad as You Might Think

“Have you heard about how raising minimum wage will destroy the economy?” I was enjoying ice cream the other day with two women I respect and admire. Then the conversation turned to current events with this comment from Friend A. From there, she moved on to health concerns, “And what about the plagues that are spreading throughout the world? No one is safe!”

I turned to Friend B, a biology teacher asked, “What do you think of the corona virus?” I was looking for a more balanced, rational approach to the concern. Friend B immediately responded, “The incidence of epidemics is increasing with global warming. We will have more and more of these epidemics unless we control climate change.”

That’s when I changed the subject. “Isn’t this great ice cream?” I exclaimed perkily. “How do you like your flavor?”

What struck me about both of my friends’ world views was the pessimism that undergirded their opinions. It seemed as though for one, liberal policies would be the downfall of the world. For the other,  it seemed climate change would destroy us. 

I like to call this kind of thinking horribilizing.

I prefer to look for more optimistic outcomes, and indeed, there is evidence to support such a view.

Let’s look at the case for economic doom. A recent piece in the Wall Street Journal, “The American Dream is Alive and Well” by Michael R. Strain explains that, though many voices on both the left and the right insist the middle class has been “permanently broken,” the fact is that the middle class is doing pretty well. The wages of workers (not managers or supervisors) has grown by 33% (after accounting for inflation) since 1990. From 1967-2018, the share of middleclass households has indeed fallen by 12%. However, the share of low-income households has also fallen, while “the share of households earning over $100,000 has tripled, rising from 10% to 30%.” So, it appears the middle class is decreasing because the upper class is increasing. Sounds like the economy is doing pretty well, even for those who are not in the top 1%. 

Now let’s look at climate change, and another recent article  (“Ignore the Fake Climate Debate”) which examined the nuanced attitudes toward climate in science journals, where even pessimistic scientists “do not believe that runaway climate change or a hothouse earth are plausible scenarios, much less that human extinction is imminent,” and the most optimistic scientists still “recognize a need for policies to address climate change.” Neither side foresees an immanent doomsday, and both sides recognize the need to do something.

But why do we general-run-of-the-mill folks tend to be filled with fears that something or other will destroy the world as we know it—Trump or Bernie; climate change or government regulations; world-wide pandemic or terrorism.

Likely it’s because we are swayed by the negativity bias—the way something bad takes so much more of our psychic space than something good. You know how you are much more likely to remember the one person who snubbed you at a party than all the friends who embraced you? The way you decide not to go to a restaurant because of one bad Yelp review, even though there are ten good ones? 

John Tierney and Roy F. Baumeister explore this bias in their recent book The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Bias Rules Us and How We Can Rule It. Tierney and Baumeister suggest that when we understand this bias in our life, we can work to find more balance. A simple example is that, at the end of the day, instead of fixating on the jerk at the office who doesn’t appreciate all the work you do, to instead make a list of three good things that happened today. This doesn’t mean you ignore the problems at the office, but that you also recognize the positive experiences. 

In a similar way, I think it is a good idea to follow the news with an awareness that of course journalists are motivated to highlight the bad stuff because that is click bait—the kidnapped child,  the plunging stock markets, the 14-car-pile-up on the freeway. We can’t help being drawn to the scary stuff. But, we can also force our brains to consider all the millions of safe children, all the times the market recovered after crashing, and the thousands of cars that safely arrived at their destinations. Usually there is more good than bad.

I saw a Japanese anime film recently that demonstrates this ability to see the good in the face of crisis. The film, “Weathering With You” by director Makoto Shinkai, depicts a Tokyo that is being deluged by never-ceasing rain. As the months go by, the water rises, until by the end of film, Tokyo is almost completely submerged. However, this is not a doomsday event. Instead, the people of Tokyo adapt. Instead of traveling by subway, they travel by boat. They move to higher ground. Their lives go on with very little change. As one character puts it, “It is not a problem.”

We will certainly go through bad things. There are epidemics and wars and climate crises and government corruption and corporate mismanagement. We should certainly not ignore these dangerous situations. But the way we can best fight them is not by throwing up our hands and saying we have lost. We will fight them with courage and resilience, by believing that good is stronger than bad, that, whatever doomsday scenario we can imagine, we as a human race are stronger and better.