Coronavirus, Panic, and the Flu

Last week I had the flu.

Not coronavirus. Just the flu. The I-have-a-fever-and-I-want-to-sleep-all-day-but-I-ache-all-over-and-I-can’t-stop-coughing flu. It was not fun. We had to cancel a long-anticipated trip to visit my daughter’s family in Texas. I stayed in bed for most of the week. My husband took over meals and dishes and now I keep finding utensils in different locations in the kitchen. My daughter called and offered to FaceTime me so I could see my darling 18-month-old granddaughter. I replied, “But then I would have to open my eyes.”

It was not fun. But I never doubted I would recover (well, maybe a little, that first day). I knew it was just the flu, and in a week or so I would be back to normal. Flu happens.

But suddenly now there is this new illness, coronavirus, which is putting the whole world into panic mode. It seems half of China is in quarantine, as well as much of Italy. Borders are closed. Baseball games are playing to empty stadiums. Stock markets around the world are crashing. People are hoarding bottled water and toilet paper as though they expect a hurricane. The Tokyo Summer Olympics may be cancelled. The NBA is telling players not to share “high-fives” with fans. 

But really, what do we know about this new flu? One of the tricky things about it is that for most people it is not a bad illness, not even bad enough to keep you in bed. That is, of course, one reason it spreads so quickly. The carriers don’t even know they could be spreading illness. That is also why it’s hard to pin down the mortality rate. When we are not sure how many people have the disease it’s hard to say what percentage of those who get the illness will die from it. 

Reports of mortality rate that I have seen vary from 4% to .1%. That’s a big distinction. Part of the challenge in figuring the mortality is that we don’t know the total number of infected people to compare with the number of deaths. And the reason we don’t know is that many, maybe most, of those infected have very mild symptoms, so mild they may not even know they are sick. The data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess illustrates this: Of the 3,711 on board, at least 705 tested positive. Of those, more than half had no symptoms. Six deaths occurred, which is a fatality rate of .85T. (See Slate.com “Covid-19 Isn’t as Deadly as We Think”). It’s important to note that all who died were over 70 years old. 

The coronavirus is of course a danger, but should we really be as panicked as we seem to be? Why are we so scared? The answer can probably be found in the “Power of Bad.” We are prone to respond to danger more than to safety, to notice the problem not the status quo. This was a good thing when we needed to run from a saber-tooth tiger and a bad thing when we start dumping all our stocks in response to what may be passing crisis. (See my recent blog post “Things Are Probably Not as Bad as You Think They Are”; Also the book The Power of Bad: How the Negativity Effect Rules Us and How We Can Rule It by John Tierney and Roy F. Baumiester).

This is not to say that we need not be careful. Quarantines and other safeguards are probably a good idea. We need to be especially vigilant in protecting older folks. And, as we are told over and over again, let’s wash our hands carefully and stop touching our faces. (Have you been surprised as I have just how long 20 seconds is? That ABC song seems to go on forever! Also, have you noticed how much you touch your face? I feel like I do it all the time, now that I’m noticing.) 

Let’s be wise. Let’s be prudent.

But let’s not panic. Keep calm and wash your hands.